General raw material demand trends

In view of the rapid growth of both the world population and global economy, it is not surprising that world consumption of key raw materials is also rising rapidly.  Over the 20-year period ending in 1994, the world population increased 40 percent.  Within the same time frame, global consumption of aluminum, wood, hydraulic cement, and plastics increased by 36, 37, 77, and 194 percent, respectively.  Of the basic raw materials widely used in construction, only crude steel - consumption of which increased by only 3 percent from 1974 to 1994 - registered a growth rate that was significantly lower than the rate of population increase.

As noted earlier, gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide has grown more rapidly than population in recent decades.  Comparisons of raw material consumption with GDP are useful because they provide an indication of how levels of raw materials might change in the future.  GDP, the value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a nation, would seem to be a good indicator of raw materials use, since economic activity and raw materials use are obviously linked.  The relationship is not direct, however, as has been pointed out by Tilton (1990) and others.

Based on studies of historical patterns of materials use in nations now recognized as developed, materials use per unit of GDP (a value referred to as intensity of use) has tended to rise early in a nation's history, but has then tended to fall as per capita income has risen significantly beyond subsistence levels.

(Source: OECD, 1974 as reported in Tilton, J.E. 1990. World Metal Demand - Trends And Prospects. Resources For The Future.)

(Source: Ross, M., Larson, E.D., and Williams, R.H. 1987. Energy Demand and Materials Flows in the Economy. Energy 12(10/11):953-967)

The fact that intensity of use (IU) of many materials is tending to fall over time within developed nations is a hopeful sign, since a continuation of this trend could reduce pressure on the world's resources.  It should be noted, however, that even within developed nations, at the same time that the IU of some materials is falling, the IU of other key materials is continuing to rise, including plastics, masonry and Portland cement, and paper.

(Source: Ross, M., Larson, E.D., and Williams, R.H. 1987. Energy Demand and Materials Flows in the Economy. Energy 12(10/11):953-967)

Consistent with early trends noted for intensity of materials use, raw materials use in developing nations has for some time been generally rising more rapidly than GDP growth.  Furthermore, the annual rate of growth in metals consumption has in many cases registered 7 to 10 percent and more over extended periods in recent decades.

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